Showing 1 - 10 of 346
This paper tests for conflicts of interest in the rating process of European asset- and mortgage-backed securities based on a new aggregation method for a deal's different tranche ratings. Controlling for a large set of determinants of credit risk, we find that credit rating agencies provide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083647
Similarities between the Great Depression and the Great Recession are documented with respect to the behavior of financial markets. A Great Depression regime is identified by using a Markov-switching VAR. The probability of this regime has remained close to zero for many decades, but spiked for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011213314
This paper explores the dominant role of politics in decisions made by euro area governments during the crisis. Decisions that appear to have been driven by local political considerations to the detriment of the euro area as a whole are discussed. The domination of politics over economics has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084126
We use realized variances and covariances based on intraday data from Eurozone sovereign bond market to measure the dependence structure of eurozone sovereign yields. Our analysis focuses on the impact of news, obtained from the Eurointelligence newsflash, on the dependence structure. More news...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084398
Motivated the European debt crisis, we construct a tractable theory of sovereign debt and structural reforms under limited commitment. The government of a sovereign country which has fallen into a recession of an uncertain duration issues one-period debt and can renege on its obligations by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276380
This paper reviews the background and key policy challenges of the current situation of the Spanish economy. It describes the strengths and weaknesses of Spain’s recent long growth cycle, the real and financial imbalances accumulated towards its end, and the troubles faced at the current...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008554220
This paper examines the performance of alternative models for predicting turning points in the UK growth cycle. The models are based upon an interpretation of movements in the CSO's composite longer and shorter leading indicators. The difference between the models lies in the choice of method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504620
In the evolving debate and analysis of global imbalances, a commonly overlooked issue pertains to rising protectionism. This paper attempts to fill that gap, examining the macroeconomic implications of trade policy changes through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789140
The remarkable economic success of the United States in the 1990s led many observers to talk about a ‘New Economy’. This Paper provides an overview of the main issues, including faster productivity growth, the stability of inflation despite very low unemployment, the greater overall economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791585
The extreme levels of stock price volatility found during the Great Depression have often been attributed to political uncertainty. This Paper performs an explicit test of the Merton/Schwert hypothesis that doubts about the survival of the capitalist system were partly responsible. It does so by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791692