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Originally propounded by the 16th-century scholars of the University of Salamanca, the concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) was revived in the interwar period in the context of the debate concerning the appropriate level at which to re-establish international exchange rate parities. Broadly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662378
Alexander Swoboda is one of the originators of the bipolar view that capital mobility creates pressure for countries to abandon intermediate exchange rate arrangements in favor of greater flexibility and harder pegs. This paper takes another look at the evidence for this hypothesis using two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498132
Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. The volatility of macroeconomic variables, such as money …-off between reduced exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic stability. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792135
forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian … stochastic volatility innovations; and (ii) strategies based on combined forecasts yield large economic gains over the random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123849
misaligned exchange rates, appear to have suffered more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar … more ‘extractive’ institutions from their colonial past were more likely to experience high volatility and economic crises … appear to have only a minor impact on volatility and crises. This suggests that distortionary macroeconomic policies are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136626
outside the Union. The analysis indicates the need to distinguish between short-term oscillations (i.e. volatility) and medium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136634
(real or nominal, bilateral or effective) exchange rate volatility? If so, has this been at the expense of increased … interest rate volatility? How important have capital controls been for the operation of the EMS? Has the Exchange Rate … Mechanism reduced the volatility of unanticipated exchange rate changes? Has the EMS been effective in making ERM currencies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661462
It is customary to suggest that the asymmetry in the transmission of oil price shocks to real output is well established. Much of the empirical work cited as being in support of asymmetries, however, has not directly tested the hypothesis of an asymmetric transmission of oil price innovations....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784725
There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (1) oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083435
Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide the first formal analysis of this question with special attention to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083465