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able to generate fragile equilibria. For instance, in this literature the natural unemployment rate is allowed to shift … over time depending on past unemployment. Actually, many European unemployment series seem to exhibit a unit root or … persistence. This view is questioned in the paper using German data on unemployment. A new class of time-series models, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666959
to workers. In the short run, union membership dynamics are mainly driven by changes in unemployment. In turn, changes in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656160
return to one of the most important ideas to emerge from Keynes’ (1936) General Theory; that high involuntary unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084345
We use a 12-dimensional VAR to examine the dynamic effects on the labour market of four structural technology and policy shocks. For each shock, we examine the dynamic effects on the labour market, the importance of the shock for labour market volatility, and the comovement between labour market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123759
This paper studies the joint behaviour of inflation and unemployment in Spain over the period 1964–95 in order to … on the effects of demand shocks on the unemployment rate. Our estimates suggest, according to the reader’s prior belief …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124194
This paper provides a model of "social hysteresis," whereby long, deep recessions demotivate workers and thereby lead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084645
differenced unemployment rate, to isolate three 'structural' shocks which drove business cycle fluctuations in Spain during 1970 … unit-root persistence in the unemployment rate. Our basic finding is that disinflationary policies in an economy suffering … from high persistence can become very costly in terms of unemployment, unless supply-side reforms, aimed at eliminating the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124406
The Paper highlights one critical difference between Europe and the US regarding the Phillips curve: the behaviour of prices. While they are quickly restored to an equilibrium level in the US, European prices are driven by highly counter-cyclical mark-ups. In bad times, European firms manage to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662168
Nominal price and wage rigidity renders monetary policy effective over output. However, this effectiveness extends, under widely used overlapping-wage and Calvo-contract Phillips Curves, to planned monetary policy (‘exploitability’) and not merely to policy surprises. We argue that within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662276
The New Keynesian Phillips curve explains inflation dynamics as being driven by current and expected future real marginal costs. In competitive labour markets, the labour share can serve as a proxy for the latter. In this paper, we study the role of real marginal cost components implied by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792530