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The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083232
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Betting the House
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
, materially heighten the risk of financial crises. Both effects have become stronger in the postwar era. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145419
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A Theory of Slow-Moving Capital and Contagion
Acharya, Viral V; Shin, Hyun Song; Yorulmazer, Tanju - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
Fire sales that occur during crises beg the question of why sufficient outside capital does not move in quickly to take …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004980209
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Fire Sales, Foreign Entry and Bank Liquidity
Acharya, Viral V; Shin, Hyun Song; Yorulmazer, Tanju - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
Bank liquidity is a crucial determinant of the severity of banking crises. In this paper, we consider the effect of … fire sales and foreign entry on banks' ex ante choice of liquid asset holdings, and the ex post resolution of crises. In a …, foreign entry reduces this incentive. We exhibit international evidence on foreign entry following crises and on banks' ex …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123848
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Strategic Complementarity, Fragility, and Regulation
Vives, Xavier - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
The paper analyzes a very stylized model of crises and demonstrates how the degree of strategic complementarity in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009147398
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The Great Leveraging
Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
What can history can tell us about the relationship between the banking system, financial crises, the global economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084609
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Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models
Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
Skepticism toward traditional identifying assumptions based on exclusion restrictions has led to a surge in the use of structural VAR models in which structural shocks are identified by restricting the sign of the responses of selected macroeconomic aggregates to these shocks. Researchers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493558
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The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts
Ehrmann, Michael; Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
There is a broad consensus in the literature that costs of information processing and acquisition may generate costly disagreements in expectations among economic agents, and that central banks may play a central role in reducing such dispersion in expectations. This paper analyses empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458290
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Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime-switching Approach
Altug, Sumru G.; Bildirici, Melike - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
This paper characterizes business cycle phenomena in a sample of 27 developed and developing economies using a univariate Markov regime switching approach. It examines the efficacy of this approach for detecting business cycle turning points and for identifying distinct economic regimes for each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008466348
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Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP
Muellbauer, John; Nunziata, Luca - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001
We derive a comprehensive one-year ahead forecasting model of US per capita GDP for 1955-2000, collectively examining variables usually considered singly, e.g. interest rates, credit conditions, the stock market, oil prices and the yield gap, of which all, except the last, are found to matter....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662187