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questionnaire evidence. We find that fund managers and FX dealers differ significantly. Fund managers rely more on fundamentals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791422
This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008684687
during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals’ distribution. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or … crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals … fundamentals. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661842
While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity. In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293988
Empirical evidence shows that macroeconomic fundamentals have little explanatory power for nominal exchange rates. On … determination. There are two types of heterogeneity: dispersed information about fundamentals, and non-fundamentals based … the impact of non-fundamentals trade on the exchange rate, both resulting from rational confusion about the source of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662225
The uncovered interest rate parity equation is the cornerstone of most models in international macro. However, this equation does not hold empirically since the forward discount, or interest rate differential, is negatively related to the subsequent change in the exchange rate. This forward...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124040
Central banks can go broke and have done so, although mainly in developing countries. The conventional balance sheet of the central bank is uninformative about the financial resources it has at its disposal and about its ability to act as an effective lender of last resort and market marker of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656271
exchange rates and traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, but also has real consequences for output and risk sharing. Exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083240
Any security’s expected return can be decomposed into its “carry” and its expected price appreciation, where carry is a model-free characteristic that can be observed in advance. While carry has been studied almost exclusively for currencies, we find that carry predicts returns both in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083673
We examine the evolution of the Icelandic banking sector in its macroeconomic environment. The story culminates in the crisis of October 2008, when all three major banks in Iceland collapsed in three successive days. The country is still struggling to cope with the consequences. The paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084274