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This paper explores the effects of the US business cycle on US stock market returns through an analysis of the equity risk premium. We propose a new methodology based on the SDF approach to asset pricing that allows us to uncover the different effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791523
Central banks throughout the world predict inflation with new-Keynesian models where, after a shock, the unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084150
Cross-country evidence on inflation and inequality suggests that they are positively correlated. I explore the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792380
We introduce the model of asset management developed in Gennaioli, Shleifer, and Vishny (GSV, 2014) into a Solow-style neoclassical growth model with diminishing returns to capital. Savers rely on trusted intermediaries to manage their wealth (claims on capital stock), who can charge fees above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084567
This is a case study of how a country nearly reached bankruptcy in March 2013, within five years from entering the Eurozone. The magnitude of the requested assistance is extremely large relative to GDP (100%) and studying this event provides useful lessons for avoiding such crises in the future....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084648
much sharper rise in inflation than measured by the official price indices, whose quality was called into question. In this … determinants. Since these data do not rely on official inflation statistics, they provide an independent check for the latter. We … not recorded by official inflation statistics. We do not find evidence in support of this hypothesis. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504448
producers. I apply these results to a model of inflation. I find that the model can fit the quantitative facts on post …-war inflation remarkably well, that it is a good forecaster of future inflation, and that it survives the Lucas critique by fitting … also the pre-war facts on inflation moderately well. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504647
If a consumer wishes to protect her retirement account from the risk of price changes in order to sustain a stable standard of living, then what price index should the account be indexed to? This paper constructs a dynamic price index (DPI) that answers this question. Unlike the existing theory...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504651
the primary deficit with future values of inflation, interest rates, GDP and narrow money growth and changes in the … through adjustments in the primary deficit (80-100%), with less substantial roles being played by inflation (0-10%) and GDP … growth (0-20%). Focusing on the relation between fiscal imbalances and inflation suggests extremely modest interactions. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497882
The fiscal gains from, and hence the political incentives for, an increase in the inflation rate of ten percentage … inflation increase would have been even larger, however, and would thus have reduced net welfare. Possible institutional reforms …, aimed at making the political costs of inflation more equal to the social costs, are presented and discussed. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498004