Showing 1 - 10 of 326
. We consider a dynamic game in which firms improve both a new and a rival old technology while learning about the relative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504449
Using a large sample of retail investors as well as experimental data we find that risk and ambiguity aversion are positively correlated. We show the common link is decision style: intuitive thinkers tolerate more risk and ambiguity than effortful reasoners. One interpretation is that intuitive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008915807
Prior research suggests that those who rely on intuition rather than effortful reasoning when making decisions are less averse to risk and ambiguity. The evidence is largely correlational, however, leaving open the question of the direction of causality. In this paper, we present experimental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083555
We introduce the information microstructure of a canonical noisy rational expectations model (Hellwig, 1980) into the framework of a conventional real business cycle model. Each household receives a private signal about future productivity. In equilibrium, the stock price serves to aggregate and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083546
We analyse some practical aspects of implementing adaptive learning in the context of forward-looking linear models. In … gradient and constant gain learning. We propose three ways of initializing, one that uses randomly generated data, a second … and evolution of macroeconomic variables not only depend on the learning algorithm, but on the initial conditions as well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656433
. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a … between rational and adaptive Bayesian learning. Rational learners account for the possibility of future changes in beliefs in …-valued and price-dividend ratios vary less under adaptive versus rational learning for identical priors. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009201120
This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009144737
When an agent chooses between prospects, noise in information processing generates an effect akin to the winner’s curse. Statistically unbiased perception systematically overvalues the chosen action because it fails to account for the possibility that noise is responsible for making the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083577
This Paper analyses the welfare effects of price restrictions on private contracting in a world where agents have a limited cognitive ability. People compute the costs and benefits of entering a transaction with an error. The government knows the distribution of true costs and benefits as well...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662402
Instrumental variable estimation requires untestable exclusion restrictions. With policy effects on individual outcomes, there is typically a time interval between the moment the agent realizes that he may be exposed to the policy and the actual exposure or the announcement of the actual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792073