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The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic
Bacchetta, Philippe; van Wincoop, Eric - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, we witnessed steep declines in output, consumption and investment of similar magnitudes around the globe. This raises two questions. First, given the observed strong home bias in goods and financial markets, what can account...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084317
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Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008-2009
Gopinath, Gita; Itskhoki, Oleg; Neiman, Brent - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
We document the behavior of trade prices during the Great Trade Collapse of 2008-2009 using transaction-level data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. First, we find that differentiated manufactures exhibited marked stability in their trade prices during the large decline in their trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083970
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Looking for Contagion: the Evidence from the ERM
Favero, Carlo A.; Giavazzi, Francesco - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
This paper applies a full-information technique to test for the presence of contagion across the money markets of ERM … members. We show that whenever it is possible to estimate a model for interdependence, a test for contagion based o a full … information technique is more powerful. We test for the presence of contagion after having identified episodes of country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123753
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Measuring Co-Movements Between US and European Stock Markets
Bonfiglioli, Alessandra; Favero, Carlo A. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
stock market. We conduct our analysis by explicitly considering the distinction between interdependence and contagion. By … equilibrium for US shares? Is there short-term interdependence and contagion between US and European stock markets, i.e. do short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067572
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Strong Contagion with Weak Spillovers
Ellison, Martin; Graham, Liam; Vilmunen, Jouko - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
probability of a similar jump in another market. We claim that contagion is strong since equilibrium jumps become highly …. Other examples where weak spillovers would create strong contagion are various models of monetary policy, imperfect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789024
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Spillovers from the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: A Macroeconometric Model Based Analysis
Bayoumi, Tamim; Vitek, Francis - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
This paper analyzes past and possible future spillovers from the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis, both within the Euro Area and to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into fifteen national economies. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009207522
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Coordination, Cooperation, Contagion and Currency Crises
Loisel, Olivier; Martin, Philippe - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999
improving, makes countries more dependent on other countries' fundamentals so that it may induce more contagion: a negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124321
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Sovereign Debt, Bail-Outs and Contagion in a Monetary Union
Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Kobielarz, Michal L.; Uras, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
The European sovereign debt crisis is characterized by the simultaneous surge in borrowing costs in the GIPS countries after 2008. We present a theory, which can account for the behavior of sovereign bond spreads in Southern Europe between 1998 and 2012. Our key theoretical argument is related...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011186628
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What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession?
Burda, Michael C; Hunt, Jennifer - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
Germany experienced an even deeper fall in GDP in the Great Recession than the United States, with little employment loss. Employers’ reticence to hire in the preceding expansion, associated in part with a lack of confidence it would last, contributed to an employment shortfall equivalent to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009246610
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Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and Monetary Developments
Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Pill, Huw; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
Standard accounts of the Great Depression attribute an important causal role to monetary policy errors in accounting for the catastrophic collapse in economic activity observed in the early 1930s. While views vary on the relative importance of money versus credit contraction in the propagation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784743