outperforms a standard macro-finance model in inflation and yield forecasting. …

for forecasting GDP growth at short-term horizons in the euro area. We discuss three sets of empirical results. First we … forecast revisions. Third we design a pseudo out of sample forecasting exercise and examine point and density forecast accuracy …

combine the best forecasting tools with the possibility of incorporating their own judgement. In this context, we provide …

spread helps in forecasting output and the structural evidence on the difficulties of estimating the effect of monetary … forecasting equation improves the forecasting performance of the spread for future output but the coefficients on the short rate … into an expectations-related component and a term premium allows a better understanding of the forecasting model. In fact …

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that topically-oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

We examine the short-term performance of two alternative approaches of forecasting from dynamic factor models. The … terms of forecasting ability. Using five coincident indicators, we illustrate this result for US data. …