Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modelling consumer price inflation. This … study, the first of its kind for an emerging market country, investigates gains to inflation forecast accuracy by …

Models for the twelve-month-ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain weighted consumer expenditure deflator … prices; introducing non-linearities to proxy state dependence in the inflation process; and replacing the information …

Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many … current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences. The … world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in inflation. If inflation falls rapidly, such models can underestimate the …

The Paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output … growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human … the income velocity of money that can break the otherwise stable relation between money, inflation, and output growth …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

unemployment-inflation tradeoff might indicate not something to be exploited but instead only policy-makers' correctly …

response functions. We also study the role of monetary aggregates and velocity in predicting inflation in the two models. …