The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade has long been a major concern for policy-makers. This … is particularly the case in Europe, where countries trade extensively with each other. The crisis that began in the … Summer of 1992 generated increased exchange rate fluctuations and, therefore, renewed concerns about consequences for trade …

important since democracy is, on the whole, for specified reasons likely to enhance poverty reduction. …

country or with an increase in the storage cost in one country. When one country (`the EC') uses a variable import levy and … export subsidy to defend a fixed price floor, increases in the floor (a) increase mean price and decrease price volatility in … the EC and (b) decrease mean price, increase volatility and increase private stockholding in the rest of the world. The …

shocks have had a more severe impact on advanced economies, it was mainly the decline in risk appetite that affected emerging …

Acceleration and the Great Moderation. The implication is that changing variances of shocks caused the reduction of volatility …. Smaller Fed policy errors accounted for the fall in inflation volatility. Smaller supply shocks accounted for the fall in … output volatility and smaller demand shocks for lower interest rate volatility. The same model with differing Taylor rules of …

stability is considered in a setting taking into account interdependencies between countries running via trade links and the … both demand and supply shocks, which can be either aggregate or idiosyncratic. It is shown that a policy mix problem arises … shocks. In the case of aggregate shocks the inefficiency in responding to shocks is increasing in the number of member …

decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism. …This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the …

between mid-2003 and mid-2008 was driven by repeated positive shocks to the demand for all industrial commodities, reflecting … different econometric methodology. Rather than inferring demand shocks from an econometric model, we utilize a direct measure of … global demand shocks based on revisions of professional real GDP growth forecasts. We show that recent forecast surprises …

unfortunate outcome as the result of a series of adverse shocks, compounded by disinflationary policies and by a flawed system of … labour market institutions. Our aim is to explain the main sources of shocks to unemployment, and the most relevant features …

paper we develop a new duration model that allows for unobserved persistent individual-specific health shocks and provides … leads to a 12% decline in the probability of death. We find a large role of unobserved health shocks, with 5-years of shocks …-specific shocks are likely to be important. …