Showing 1 - 10 of 55
limited; prediction based upon this series is typically outperformed by naive, non-indicator methods. The information content …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504620
to new uncertain observations that are less important for welfare and introduces a bias in prediction. Prudent … less strongly to new measurements of the output gap. Prudence attenuates this policy reaction and biases the prediction of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114367
This paper develops a method for producing current-quarter forecasts of GDP growth with a (possibly large) range of available within-the-quarter monthly observations of economic indicators, such as employment and industrial production, and financial indicators, such as stock prices and interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084707
Many studies have used self-reported dyadic data without exploiting the pattern of discordant answers. In this paper we propose a maximum likelihood estimator that deals with mis-reporting in a systematic way. We illustrate the methodology using dyadic data on inter-household transfers from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272706
Using the regression discontinuity design of close gubernatorial elections in the U.S., we identify a significant and positive impact of the social networks of corporate directors and politicians on firm value. Firms connected to elected governors increase their value by 3.89%. Political...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011249372
The aim of this paper is to provide a new mechanism based on social interactions explaining why minority workers have worse labor-market outcomes than majority workers. Building on Granovetter's idea that weak ties are superior to strong ties for providing support in getting a job, we develop a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322974
Using an original dataset describing the career history of some 16,000 senior executives and members of the non-executive board of US, UK, French and German companies, we investigate gender differences in the use of social networks and their impact on earnings. There is a large gender wage gap:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009351518
This paper examines how networks of professional contacts contribute to the development of the careers of executives of European and US companies. We build a dynamic model of career progression in which career moves both depend upon existing networks and contribute to the development of future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009359489
We develop two different social network models with different economic foundations. In the local-aggregate model, it is the sum of friends' efforts in some activity that affects the utility of each individual while, in the local-average model, it is costly to deviate from the average effort of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009205066
Delinquents are embedded in a network of relationships. Social ties among delinquents are modelled by means of a graph where delinquents compete for a booty and benefit from local interactions with their neighbors. Each delinquent decides in a non-cooperative way how much delinquency effort he...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005041094