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Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices
Bofinger, Peter; Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that topically-oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504428
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Gender Differences in Honesty: Groups Versus Individuals
Muehlheusser, Gerd; Roider, Andreas; Wallmeier, Niklas - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
Extending the die rolling experiment of Fischbacher and Föllmi-Heusi (2013), we compare gender effects with respect to unethical behavior by individuals and by two-person groups. In contrast to individual decisions, gender matters strongly under group decisions. We find more lying in male...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145435
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Time to Decide: Information Search and Revelation in Groups
Campbell, Arthur; Ederer, Florian; Spinnewijn, Johannes - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We analyze costly information acquisition and information revelation in groups in a dynamic setting. Even when group members have perfectly aligned interests the group may inefficiently delay decisions. When deadlines are far away, uninformed group members freeride on each others' efforts to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009246605
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Fiscal Union Consensus Design under the Risk of Autarky
Luque, Jaime; Morelli, Massimo; Tavares, José - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
consensus. Our model deepens the discussion of economic risk and political risk in fiscal federalism, and highlights the related …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009283396
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The Politics of Compromise
Bonatti, Alessandro; Rantakari, Heikki - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
, agents bargain over which one to implement. A consensus requirement can (but need not) induce the efficient balance between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083881
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Classical time-varying FAVAR models - Estimation, forecasting and structural analysis
Eickmeier, Sandra; Lemke, Wolfgang; Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We propose a classical approach to estimate factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models with time variation in the factor loadings, in the factor dynamics, and in the variance-covariance matrix of innovations. When the time-varying FAVAR is estimated using a large quarterly dataset of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008921778
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Which Fundamentals Drive Exchange Rates? A Cross-Sectional Perspective
Sarno, Lucio; Schmeling, Maik - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
Standard present-value models suggest that exchange rates are driven by expected future fundamentals, implying that exchange rates contain information about future fundamentals. We test this key empirical prediction of present-value models in a sample of 35 currency pairs ranging from 1900 to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083568
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Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans
Orlik, Anna; Veldkamp, Laura - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
parameters. When the forecasting model admits only normally-distributed outcomes, we find small, acyclical changes in uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084011
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How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?
Wickens, Michael R. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
forecasting structure to time series models and their forward-looking dynamics, which consists of expected values of future … their forecasting ability. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084549
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Exchange Rate Predictability
Rossi, Barbara - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084576