Do generations growing up during recessions have different socio-economic beliefs than generations growing up in good times? We study the relationship between recessions and beliefs by matching macroeconomic shocks during early adulthood with self-reported answers from the General Social Survey....

As a generalization of the factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) and of the Error Correction Model (ECM), Banerjee and Marcellino (2009) introduced the Factor-augmented Error Correction Model (FECM). The FECM combines error-correction, cointegration and dynamic factor models, and has several conceptual...

This paper brings together several important strands of the econometrics literature: error-correction, cointegration and dynamic factor models. It introduces the Factor-augmented Error Correction Model (FECM), where the factors estimated from a large set of variables in levels are jointly...

This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods’ prices to separate them into three components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, aggregate relative-price changes, and changes in the unit of account. The model identifies a measure of “pure”...

This paper studies the international business cycle behaviour across 25 advanced and emerging market economies for which 125 years of annual GDP data are available. The picture that emerges is more fragmented than the one drawn by studies that focused on a narrower set of advanced market...

Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long- run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States. Our evidence supports the view that this slowdown started prior to the Great...

Starting from the dynamic factor model for non-stationary data we derive the factor-augmented error correction model (FECM) and, by generalizing the Granger representation theorem, its moving-average representation. The latter is used for the identification of structural shocks and their...

Skepticism toward traditional identifying assumptions based on exclusion restrictions has led to a surge in the use of structural VAR models in which structural shocks are identified by restricting the sign of the responses of selected macroeconomic aggregates to these shocks. Researchers...

We study the effects of government spending by using a structural, large dimensional, dynamic factor model. We find that the government spending shock is non-fundamental for the variables commonly used in the structural VAR literature, so that its impulse response functions cannot be...

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign...