We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model’s...

New-Keynesian models are characterized by the presence of expectations as explanatory variables. To use these models for policy evaluation, the econometrician must estimate the parameters of expectation terms. Standard estimation methods have several drawbacks, including possible lack of...

This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy...

We demonstrate that average interest rates in the EMU countries in 1990-98, with the exception of the period of exchange market turmoil in 1992-93, moved very closely in relation to average output gaps and inflation as suggested by the Taylor rule.

Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995a, b), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are four-fold. First, the yield curve predicts future recessions in all countries. Second, term spreads forecast...

The literature on monetary policy games establishes that policy makers' attempts to boost employment above the 'natural' rate are futile and result in an inflationary bias when wage setters have rational expectations and the policy maker cannot precommit. This implies that a variation of the...

In a Common Currency Area (CCA) the Common Central Bank sets a uniform rate of inflation across countries, taking into account the area’s economic conditions. Supposing that countries in recession favor a more expansionary policy than countries in expansion, a conflict of interest between...

In a country with high probability of default, higher interest rates may render the currency less attractive if sovereign default is costly. This paper develops that intuition in a simple model and estimates the effect of changes in interest rates on the exchange rate in Brazil using data from...

To identify credit availability we analyze the extensive and intensive margins of lending with loan applications and all loans granted in Spain. We find that both worse economic and tighter monetary conditions reduce loan granting, especially to firms or from banks with lower capital or...