We build a model where sovereign defaults weaken banks’ balance sheets because banks hold sovereign bonds, causing private credit to decline. Stronger financial institutions boost default costs by amplifying these balance-sheet effects. This yields a novel complementarity between public debt...

There is a large and growing literature that studies the effects of weak enforcement institutions on economic performance. This literature has focused almost exclusively on primary markets, in which assets are issued and traded to improve the allocation of investment and consumption. The general...

Securitization of LDC debt would significantly aid the international debt problem by increasing liquidity and expanding the range of investors. Securitization is problematic, however, in large part due to sovereign risks involved. At present sovereign risks, commodity price risks and currency...

In this paper the two standard forms of international investment in developing countries – debt and foreign direct investment (FDI) – are compared from a finance perspective. We show that the sovereign risks associated with debt finance are generally less severe than those accompanying FDI....

This paper studies the strategic interaction between a foreign direct investor and a host country. We analyse how the investor can use his control rights to protect his investment, if he faces the risk of ‘creeping expropriation’ once his investment is sunk. It is shown that this hold-up...

Conventional wisdom says that, in the absence of sufficient default penalties, sovereign risk constraints credit and lowers welfare. We show that this conventional wisdom rests on one implicit assumption: that assets cannot be retraded in secondary markets. Once this assumption is relaxed, there...

What determines sovereign risk? We study the London bond market from the 1870s to the 1930s. Our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the limited credibility of the interwar gold standard. Before 1914, gold standard adherence effectively signalled credibility and shaved 40 to 60 basis...

This paper presents a theoretical study of the effects of globalization on risk sharing and welfare. We model globalization as a gradual and exogenous increase in the fraction of goods that are tradable. In the absence of frictions, globalization opens new goods markets and raises welfare. We...

During the last few decades, many emerging markets have lifted restrictions on cross-border financial transactions. The conventional view was that this would allow these countries to: (i) receive capital inflows from advanced countries that would finance higher investment and growth; (ii) insure...

We ask whether cuts of government consumption lower or raise the sovereign default premium. To address this question, we set up a new data set for 38 emerging and advanced economies which contains quarterly time-series observations for sovereign default premia, government consumption, and...