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Managing and Harnessing Volatile Oil Windfalls

Van Den Bremer, Ton; van der Ploeg, Frederick - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

Three funds are necessary to manage an oil windfall: intergenerational, liquidity and investment funds. The optimal liquidity fund is bigger if the windfall lasts longer and oil price volatility, prudence and the GDP share of oil rents are high and productivity growth is low. We apply our theory...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084534

The world’s oldest fiscal watchdog: CPB’s analyses foster consensus on economic policy

Bos, Frits; Teulings, Coen N - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

The sovereign debt problems in European countries have increased the interest in fiscal watchdogs. This paper discusses the world’s oldest fiscal watchdog, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). CPB was founded directly after World War II. It has built a reputation of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083741

A Common Pool Theory of Deficit Bias Correction

Krogstrup, Signe; Wyplosz, Charles - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

The budget deficit bias is modeled as the result of a domestic common pool problem and of an international externality. Along with Piguvian taxes, a number of policy measures are examined and welfare-ranked: deficit ceilings, golden rules and delegation. In general, the combination of delegation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666494

Wars, Redistribution and Civilian Federal Expenditures in the US over the Twentieth Century

Beetsma, Roel; Cukierman, Alex; Giuliodori, Massimo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

down, when the share of defence expenditures goes up. But taxes go down less and transfers go up more per unit change in … defence expenditures when those expenditures go down at the war’s conclusion than the amounts by which taxes go up and … transfers go down during the buildup in defence expenditures at the beginning of the war effort. There is no evidence of such …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114428

From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU

Beetsma, Roel; Bluhm, Benjamin; Giuliodori, Massimo; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper explores the determinants of deviations of ex-post budget outcomes from first-release outcomes published towards the end of the year of budget implementation. The predictive content of the first-release outcomes is important, because these figures are an input for the next budget and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643509

Fiscal Rules in India: Are They Effective?

Buiter, Willem H.; Patel, Urjit R. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper, a chapter in the forthcoming Oxford University Press Handbook of the Indian Economy, edited by Chetan Ghate, considers India’s experience with fiscal (responsibility) rules during the past decade. After reviewing the basic facts concerning public debt and deficits in India, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468524

When the North Last Headed South: Revisiting the 1930s

Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

The U.S recession of 2007 to 2009 is unique in the post-World-War-II experience by the broad company it kept. Activity contracted around the world, with the advanced countries of the North experiencing declines in spending normally the purview of the developing economies of the South. The last...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468628

India's Public Finances: Excessive Budget Deficits, a Government-Abused Financial System and Fiscal Rules

Buiter, Willem H.; Patel, Urjit R. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

Capital formation is a key driver of the growth of potential output. With continuing widespread capital controls and persistently small inward FDI the volume of capital formation in India is constrained by domestic saving. The national saving rate in India (the sum of the saving rates of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123636

Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124061

The Stability Pact Pains: A Forward-Looking Assessment of the Reform Debate

Buti, Marco; Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Franco, Daniele - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

The Stability and Growth Pact has been under fire ever since it was born. But is the Pact a flawed fiscal rule? Against established criteria for an ideal fiscal rule, its design and compliance mechanisms show strengths and weaknesses. The latter tend to reflect trade-offs typical of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124121

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