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Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Structural VAR Analysis with Sign Restrictions
Lippi, Francesco; Nobili, Andrea - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
We consider an economy where the oil price, industrial production, and other macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to a variety of fundamental shocks. We estimate the effects of different structural shocks using robust sign restrictions suggested by theory using US data for the 1973-2007...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791245
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Fiscal Policy Coordination and EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach
Brociner, Andrew; Levine, Paul L - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992
This paper considers fiscal policy coordination in a European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We use an overlapping generations model which leads to departures from Barro-Ricardian neutrality. In our calibrated model, however, we find these departures to be rather small. Two models are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662412
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Competition, Complementarity and Contagion in East Asia
Diwan, Ishac; Hoekman, Bernard - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999
This paper explores to what extent the magnitude and speed of the contagion effects that materialized in East Asia in the second half of 1997 may have had "real" underpinnings, in the sense that the pattern of production, consumption and trade increased the vulnerability of East Asian countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661909
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Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa
Aron, Janine; Farrell, Greg; Muellbauer, John; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy … inflation targeting when account is taken of temporary shifts to foreign currency invoicing or increased hedging after large …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784768
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Time Variation in Macro-Financial Linkages
Eickmeier, Sandra; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Prieto, Esteban - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
We analyze the contribution of credit spread, house and stock price shocks to GDP growth in the US based on a Bayesian VAR with time-varying parameters estimated over 1958-2012. Our main findings are: (i) The contribution of financial shocks to GDP growth fluctuates from about 20 percent in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083666
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Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?
Boivin, Jean; Giannoni, Marc - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
's volatility. We find that by responding more strongly to inflation expectations, monetary policy has stabilized the economy more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666463
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Forming Priors for DSGE Models (and How It Affects the Assessment of Nominal Rigidities)
Del Negro, Marco; Schorfheide, Frank - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
In Bayesian analysis of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) prior distributions for some of the taste-and-technology parameters can be obtained from microeconometric or pre-sample evidence, but it is difficult to elicit priors for the parameters that govern the law of motion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792164
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Does Inflation Matter for Growth?
Gylfason, Thorvaldur; Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996
Some channels through which increased inflation tends to reduce economic growth, and vice versa, are studied within a … potential impact of inflation on: (a) saving through real interest rates (or uncertainty); (b) the income velocity of money; (c …) the government budget deficit through the inflation tax and tax erosion; and (d) efficiency in production through the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666711
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The Price of EMU Revisited
Hughes Hallett, Andrew; Minford, Patrick; Rastogi, Anupam - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992
Using the recent EC Commission report `One Market, One Money' as a point of reference, we consider the merits of a single currency in Europe. The main benefit is the reduction in transaction costs, which the report estimates at 0.4% of European Community (EC) GDP (but much less in countries with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114257
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Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU
Boone, Laurence; Maurel, Mathilde - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1998
This paper tries to assess how costly it would be for the CEECs to peg their exchange rates to the Euro. We use three types of criteria: institutional (the Maastricht criteria); some measure of real convergence; and the Optimal Currency Area criteria. The institutional criteria seem to be an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662339