-term inflation is derived from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with state-dependent pricing developed by …-type price-setting as a special case. It describes current inflation as a function of lagged inflation, expected future inflation … find that current inflation depends positively on its own lagged values giving rise to intrinsic persistence as a source of …

model, covering a panel of EU countries, and derives the implied long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. Our results …

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking … measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap …. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting …

inflation and a permanent reduction in the level of unemployment. In short, we derive a microfounded long-run downward …

This paper estimates the NAIRU (standing for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) as a parameter that … varies over time. The NAIRU is the unemployment rate that is consistent with a constant rate of inflation. Its value is … determined in an econometric model in which the inflation rate depends on its own past values (‘inertia’), demand shocks proxied …

shifts in the parameters of wage equations when the process generating price inflation changes. The two major shifts that we …

examining the relationship between inflation and unemployment, which sheds light on these developments. The theoretical section … similar inflation behaviour, in that inflation depends more closely on the capacity utilization rate than on the unemployment … high unemployment does not put downward pressure on the inflation rate. During the 1970s and 1980s in Germany, there …

We set out a reference chronology for annual UK inflation, identifying nine complete cycles between 1958 and 1990 …. Inflation over this period is asymmetric, falling more quickly than it rises. Leading indicators are also proposed, with …, they give clear prior turning point information with relatively few `false signals'. Nevertheless, we find that inflation …

This Paper compares the forecasting performance of some leading models of inflation for the cross section of G-7 …

predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. … macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate …