indicator and forecasting properties of the real interest rate gap for inflation, both in the model and in the data. Our results … suggest that the real interest rate gap has value as an inflation indicator, supporting the ‘neo-Wicksellian framework …

in output and inflation are due to changes in potential output or to cyclical demand and cost shocks. We refer to this … information benchmark. This provides a partial but unified explanation for the inflation of the seventies and the price stability …, during and following periods of large changes in potential output, the IP significantly affects the dynamics of inflation and …

We study the determination of Irish inflation between 1935 and 2012 using a Phillips curve approach. We find that a … of diagnostic tests. We also consider the importance of UK and euro area inflation for Irish inflation. While UK … inflation is significant in the period 1935 – 1979, and euro area inflation is significant in the period 1980 – 2012, we present …

The volatile data for inflation, output, and interest rates in the United Kingdom prior to the 1990s, and the relative … macroeconomic stability associated with inflation targeting, provide a rich basis for discriminating between rival explanations for … inflation determination, estimated on quarterly UK data for 1959–2000. Our model features IS and Phillips curves based on …

A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve, provides … univariate and multivariate estimates of the output gap for predicting inflation. Many of the ex post output gap measures we … examine appear to be quite useful for predicting inflation. However, forecasts using real-time estimates of the same measures …

inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several alternative gap … clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one …

This paper studies the transmission of shocks and the trade-offs between stabilizing CPI inflation and alternative … policy, and second, that the trade-off between stabilizing CPI inflation and the output gap strongly depends on which concept …