We provide a summary updated guide for the construction, use and evaluation of leading indicators, and an assessment of the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyse the problem of selecting a target coincident variable for the leading...

We set out a reference chronology for annual UK inflation, identifying nine complete cycles between 1958 and 1990. Inflation over this period is asymmetric, falling more quickly than it rises. Leading indicators are also proposed, with composite shorter and longer leading indicators constructed....

This Paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross-unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The set-up used is Bayesian, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest....

'New open economy macroeconomics' (NOEM) refers to a body of literature embracing a new theoretical framework for policy analysis in open economy, aiming to overcome the limitations of the Mundell-Fleming model while preserving the empirical wisdom and policy friendliness of traditional...

This paper assesses the relevance of the exchange rate regime for stabilization policy. This regime question cannot be dealt with independently of other institutions, in particular how fiscal policy is designed. We show that once fiscal policy is taken into account, the exchange rate regime is...

How should monetary policy respond to changes in financial conditions? In this paper we consider a simple model where firms are subject to idyosincratic shocks which may force them to default on their debt. Firms' assets and liabilities are denominated in nominal terms and predetermined when...

This paper discusses three aspects of stabilization and international integration: the real wage; inflation; and the real effective exchange rate. Using empirical evidence on inflation and the real effective exchange rate, we evaluate the gradualist option represented by the Hungarian reforms....

The paper analyses, along the transition path and in steady state, the optimal stabilization policy in an economy in which growth is driven by learning by doing. If future benefits of learning by doing are not fully internalized by workers the optimal fiscal policy is to tax labour during...

Several recent studies imply that the response of national saving to fiscal policy is non-monotonic. In this paper, we use two data sets to search for the circumstances in which such non-monotonic responses arise: one refers to a sample of OECD countries, as in previous studies, and one to a...

Trade links imply that business cycle fluctuations are transmitted to trade partners. To the extent that fiscal policy can mitigate business cycle fluctuations this implies that there are international interdependencies in stabilization policies. We analyse the role of fiscal policy in...