We set out a reference chronology for annual UK inflation, identifying nine complete cycles between 1958 and 1990. Inflation over this period is asymmetric, falling more quickly than it rises. Leading indicators are also proposed, with composite shorter and longer leading indicators constructed....

We provide a summary updated guide for the construction, use and evaluation of leading indicators, and an assessment of the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyse the problem of selecting a target coincident variable for the leading...

This Paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross-unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The set-up used is Bayesian, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest....

'New open economy macroeconomics' (NOEM) refers to a body of literature embracing a new theoretical framework for policy analysis in open economy, aiming to overcome the limitations of the Mundell-Fleming model while preserving the empirical wisdom and policy friendliness of traditional...

This paper assesses the relevance of the exchange rate regime for stabilization policy. This regime question cannot be dealt with independently of other institutions, in particular how fiscal policy is designed. We show that once fiscal policy is taken into account, the exchange rate regime is...

How should monetary policy respond to changes in financial conditions? In this paper we consider a simple model where firms are subject to idyosincratic shocks which may force them to default on their debt. Firms' assets and liabilities are denominated in nominal terms and predetermined when...

A popular view among economists, policy-makers, and the media, is that the Maastricht Treaty and then Stability and Growth Pact have significantly impaired the ability of EU governments to conduct a stabilizing fiscal policy and to provide an adequate level of public infrastructure. In this...

In this paper I examine issues of optimal stabilization in two types of world economy, a competitive one where all countries are small, and one where there is a Stackelberg leader. The focus is on the 1985 target zones proposal of Williamson, according to which there should be a periodic fixing...

In late 1979 Turkey found itself in the throes of a foreign exchange crisis, with widespread shortages, negative growth and three-digit inflation. A decade later, Turkey has a comfortable balance-of-payments situation, and holds considerable foreign exchange reserves. The economy has achieved a...

The loss of the exchange rate as an independent policy instrument implied by EMU has spurred calls for an insurance scheme as a buffer against temporary, asymmetric shocks to national income. We study the potential properties of such a system using historical data from the 12 EC economies. An...