market-based measures of expectations are similar to survey-based forecasts although the market-based measures somewhat more …September 2002, a new market in 'Economic Derivatives' was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values … accurately predict financial market responses to surprises in data. These markets also provide implied probabilities of the full …

We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by McCallum (2001), and the classification of fiscal … and monetary policies proposed by Leeper (1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations equilibria (REE …

We set out a reference chronology for annual UK inflation, identifying nine complete cycles between 1958 and 1990 …. Inflation over this period is asymmetric, falling more quickly than it rises. Leading indicators are also proposed, with …, they give clear prior turning point information with relatively few `false signals'. Nevertheless, we find that inflation …

This Paper compares the forecasting performance of some leading models of inflation for the cross section of G-7 …

predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. … macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate …

wondering how to choose the sample for estimating forecasting models. When we forecast inflation in 2014, for example, should we … applied to forecasting US real output growth and inflation, the proposed method tends to improve upon conventional methods. …While forecasting is a common practice in academia, government and business alike, practitioners are often left …

accurate forecasts. We use the model to study the pass-through of an oil shock and to study the evolution of inflation during …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …

and easy-to-use forecasting methods such as the no-change forecast. This does not mean that there is no useful information … demand for oil. Our empirical analysis of this index provides independent evidence of how shifts in market expectations about …