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The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden between 1992 and 1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123801
Historical estimates of the Fisher effect and the informational content in the yield curve may not be relevant after a change in monetary policy. This paper uses a small dynamic rational expectations model with staggered price setting to study how central bank preferences (and thereby monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497757
A simple test of inflation target credibility is constructed by subtracting the maximum and minimum inflation rates …, fall outside the range of target-consistent real yields, credibility is rejected. Two concepts of credibility, called … absolute credibility and credibility in expectation, are distinguished. The credibility of inflation targets of Canada, New …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661572
private agents to be successful--and much of this communication is channeled through the media. This is especially true for … central banks because the effectiveness of monetary policy depends to a large degree on their credibility among the general … decisions are reported upon in the print media. We find that media coverage is, among other things, influenced by the amount of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854477
Some central banks have a reputation for being secretive. A justification for this behaviour that we find in the literature is that being transparent about operations and beliefs hinders the central bank in achieving the best outcome. In other words, a central bank needs flexibility and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124006
This paper studies the usefulness of spreads between interest rates of different maturities as indicators of future inflation and real interest rates in Germany, using monthly data from the first quarter of 1967. The central results are two-fold. First, the interest rate spreads considered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067498
Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what extent households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households' implicit expectations of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067515
Forward interest rates have become popular indicators of inflation expectations. The usefulness of this indicator depends on the relative volatility and the correlation of inflation expectations and expected real interest rates. This paper studies US and UK data, using a range of different tools...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067661
We develop a theoretical framework to quantitatively assess the general equilibrium effects and welfare implications of central bank reputation and transparency. Monetary policy alternates between periods of active inflation stabilization and periods during which the emphasis on inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084074
announcing a quantified inflation objective, other forms of communication, or by publishing central banks’ inflation and output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458290