Showing 1 - 10 of 210
A canonical model is described which reflects the real-time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with ‘conventional’ models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528535
. Our empirical findings show that the factor estimation methods don't differ much with respect to nowcasting accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124208
This paper introduces a new regression model - Markov-switching mixed data sampling (MS-MIDAS) - that incorporates regime changes in the parameters of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) models and allows for the use of mixed-frequency data in Markov-switching models. After a discussion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854481
In this paper we develop a mixed frequency dynamic factor model featuring stochastic shifts in the volatility of both the latent common factor and the idiosyncratic components. We take a Bayesian perspective and derive a Gibbs sampler to obtain the posterior density of the model parameters. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083444
This Paper reviews recent econometric work on factor models in large cross-sections of time series. In this literature, traditional factor analysis is adapted to develop parsimonious estimation methods for high dimension time series models. The review covers problems of consistency and rates –...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498094
This paper develops a method to analyse large cross-sections with non-trivial time dimensions. The method: (i) identifies the number of common shocks in a factor analytic model; (ii) estimates the unobserved common dynamic component; (iii) shows how to test for fundamentality of the common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067411
This paper analyses output and productivity for 450 US industries from 1958 to 1986. We make the following contributions. (i) We develop a method based on dynamic principal components to identify the number of common shocks to our data set. (ii) We propose a simple method for the estimation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661648
We define nowcasting as the prediction of the present, the very near future and the very recent past. Key in this … argue that the nowcasting process goes beyond the simple production of an early estimate and it consists in the analysis of … nowcasting traditionally conducted in policy institutions and used, alongside the judgemental procedures, in many central banks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468620
paper, we compare their performance in a relevant case for policy making, i.e., nowcasting and forecasting quarterly GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528546
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for now- and forecasting in the presence of model uncertainty with large, unbalanced datasets. Empirically, unbalanced data is pervasive in economics and typically due to different sampling frequencies and publication delays. Two model classes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123534