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Söderlind, Paul - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997

Historical estimates of the Fisher effect and the informational content in the yield curve may not be relevant after a change in monetary policy. This paper uses a small dynamic rational expectations model with staggered price setting to study how central bank preferences (and thereby monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497757

The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility

Svensson, Lars E O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994

A simple test of inflation target credibility is constructed by subtracting the maximum and minimum inflation rates consistent with the inflation targets from the yields to maturity on nominal bonds. This results in a target-consistent range of real yields on nominal bonds. If expected real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661572

Foreign Exchange Intervention, Policy Objectives and Macroeconomic Stability

Vitale, Paolo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

Within a simple model of monetary policy for an open economy, we study how foreign exchange intervention may be used to condition agents' beliefs of the objectives of the policymakers. Differently from cheap talk foreign exchange intervention guarantees a unique equilibrium. Foreign exchange...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124447

Is Central Bank Transparency Desirable?

Sibert, Anne - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

I analyse central bank transparency when the central bank's objective function is its private information. Non-transparency exists when the public does not observe the action of the central bank and an unobservable component of the inflation-control error keeps the public from using its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656252

First Impressions Matter: Signalling as a Source of Policy Dynamics

Hansen, Stephen; McMahon, Michael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

We provide the first direct empirical support for the relevance of signalling in monetary policy. In our dynamic model …. Signalling leads all bankers to be tougher on inflation initially, but to become less tough with experience. This evolution is … structurally estimate the model using Bank of England data and confirm both predictions. Signalling increases the probability new …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084410

Monetary Policy With Uncertain Central Bank Preferences

Sibert, Anne - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

?This Paper considers monetary policy when the weight policy makers put on output loss relative to inflation is their private information. I show that in the first period of a two-period term, all policy makers but the least inflation averse inflate less – but respond more to shocks – than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661789

Should the Euro Area be Run as a Closed Economy?

Favero, Carlo A.; Giavazzi, Francesco - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

The European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has created a new economic area, larger and closer with respect to the rest of the world. Area-specific shocks are thus more important in EMU than country-specific shocks used to be in the previous states, e.g. in Germany. It is thus not surprising...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136545

The bond yield conundrum: alternative hypotheses and the state of the economy

Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Mahieu, Ronald J; Raes, Louis - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

We study the bond yield conundrum in a macro-finance framework. Building upon a flexible and non-structural macro-finance model, we test the hypothesis that the bond yield conundrum is connected to various sources of uncertainty in the financial markets. Moreover we explicitly test for the role...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008682889

Monetary transmission in low income countries

Mishra, Prachi; Montiel, Peter J; Spilimbergo, Antonio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper reviews the monetary transmission mechanism in low income countries (LICs). We use monetary transmission in advanced and emerging markets as a benchmark to identify aspects of the transmission mechanism that may operate differently in LICs. In particular, we focus on the effects of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008466328

The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123620

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