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When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang. Based on a study of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009365001

The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium

Chong, Yanping; Jordà, Òscar; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

Frictionless, perfectly competitive traded-goods markets justify thinking of purchasing power parity (PPP) as the main driver of exchange rates in the long-run. But differences in the traded/non-traded sectors of economies tend to be persistent and affect movements in local price levels in ways...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008550320

Betting the House

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145419

Does austerity pay off?

Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot; Pfeifer, Johannes - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

We ask whether cuts of government consumption lower or raise the sovereign default premium. To address this question, we set up a new data set for 38 emerging and advanced economies which contains quarterly time-series observations for sovereign default premia, government consumption, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011168905

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083232

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084027

The Effect of Shocks to Labour Market Flows on Unemployment and Participation Rates

Dixon, Robert; Lim, Guay C.; Ours, Jan C van - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market … performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states - employment and unemployment … that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drive the unemployment rate and the participation rate in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083713

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Erceg, Christopher; Levin, Andrew - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during "normal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084036

Unemployment and Inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012

Gerlach, Stefan; Lydon, Reamonn; Stuart, Rebecca - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

We study the determination of Irish inflation between 1926 and 2012. The difference between unemployment and the NAIRU …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272719

Firm Leverage and Unemployment during the Great Recession

Giroud, Xavier; Mueller, Holger M - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

We argue that firms’ balance sheets were instrumental in the propagation of shocks during the Great Recession. Using establishment-level data, we show that firms that tightened their debt capacity in the run-up (“high-leverage firms”) exhibit a significantly larger decline in employment in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252614

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