Unemployment insurance systems include monitoring of unemployed workers and punitive sanctions if job search …-2004. We estimate duration models dealing with selection on unobservables. We use weighted exogenous sampling maximum …

This paper examines the depth and duration of the slump that invariably follows severe financial crises, which tend to … employment. The unemployment rate rises an average of 7 percentage points over the down phase of the cycle, which lasts on … average over four years. Output falls an average of over 9 percent, although the duration of the downturn is considerably …

labour market states: self-employment, employment, and unemployment. This enables us to assess the effects of changes in … unobservable individual heterogeneity, duration dependence, lagged duration dependence and state dependence. Three main results are … obtained. First, the aggregated unemployment rate is found to have a positive effect on the probability of becoming self …

This paper develops a theory characterizing the effects of fiscal policy on unemployment over the business cycle. The … theory is based on a model of equilibrium unemployment in which jobs are rationed in recessions. Fiscal policy in the form of … government spending on public-sector jobs reduces unemployment, especially during recessions: the fiscal multiplier …

aggregate unemployment duration data, in which we allow for unobserved heterogeneity and correlated measurement errors. We do …This paper examines the relation between individual unemployment durations and incidence on the one hand, and the time … currently unemployed. We also allow for the composition of the inflow into unemployment to depend on calendar time at the moment …

France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States - which any theory of unemployment ought to explain. The … business cycles. Key results are: flows into and out of unemployment are countercyclical; these flows move tightly together …, over both the cycle and the long run; the bulk of exits from unemployment actually represent job findings rather than exits …

doubles when unemployment rises from 5% to 8%. Theoretically, such countercyclicality arises because of a nonlinearity, namely … in recessions but large in expansions. Hence, government consumption reduces unemployment much more in recessions than in …