forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian … stochastic volatility innovations; and (ii) strategies based on combined forecasts yield large economic gains over the random …

volatility of state output growth, rather than in its average. The realized industry shares of output also converge faster to …

primarily from convergence in the volatility of state output growth, rather than in its average. The realized industry shares of …

and volatility in contrast to the exogenously assumed constant mean and volatility in many credit risk models. We consider … attenuated (amplified) market volatility and risk premium, but the market value is always higher in economic downturns, and lower …

For individual countries, variable trade barriers can be used to reduce the volatility of domestic relative to world … price volatility. This study shows the nature of the resulting collective action problem, with the policy being ineffective … on average in stabilizing domestic prices while increasing the volatility of the income transfers from terms …