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This paper estimates the contribution of financial shocks to fluctuations in the real economy by augmenting the standard macroeconomic vector autoregression (VAR) with five financial variables (real stock prices, real house prices, term spread, loans-to-GDP ratio and loans-to-deposits ratio)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083242
money demand falls, while a positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity. The paper explains such … velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during … important for velocity during less stable times and the goods productivity shock more important during stable times. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496458
We examine the dynamic effects of credit shocks using a large data set of U.S. economic and financial indicators in a structural factor model. The identified credit shocks, interpreted as unexpected deteriorations of credit market conditions, immediately increase credit spreads, decrease rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084533
This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a non-stationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables the study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the United States, the leading state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504615
In a situation where agents can only observe a noisy signal of the shock to future economic fundamentals, SVAR models … can still be successfully employed to estimate the shock and the associated impulse response functions. Identification is … role of the "noise" shock the component of the signal observed by agents which is unrelated to economic fundamentals as a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145478
We document a strong co-movement between the VIX, the stock market option-based implied volatility, and monetary policy …. We decompose the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility ("uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784723
Survey respondents strongly disagree about return risks and, increasingly, macroeconomic uncertainty. This may have contributed to higher asset prices through increased use of collateralisation, which allows risk-neutral investors to realise perceived gains from trade. Investors with lower risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084220
investment funds traces out a mean-variance tradeoff for the growth rate of the economy. In particular, the volatility of these … and volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661544
This paper adds a highly-leveraged financial sector to the Ramsey model of economic growth and shows that this causes the economy to behave in a highly volatile manner: doing this strongly augments the macroeconomic effects of aggregate productivity shocks. Our model is built on the financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322500
type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a permanent rise in real GDP and a fall in inflation. Bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011262887