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Central Bank Forecasts and Disclosure Policy: Why it Pays to be Optimistic

Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Tesfaselassie, Mewael F. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

In a simple macromodel with forward-looking expectations, this Paper looks into disclosure policy when a central bank …. This result holds when there is no credibility problem or the central bank’s preference is common knowledge. When there is … uncertainty about the central bank’s preference shock, and this uncertainty is not resolved in the subsequent period, advance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504375

How Should Monetary Policy Be Conducted In An Era Of Price Stability?

Svensson, Lars E O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

central bank to meet is inflation target. The threat of deflation and a liquidity trap is examined. Transparent inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504393

Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?

Canzoneri, Matthew B; Cumby, Robert; Diba, Behzad - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1998

A new theory of price determination suggests that if primary surpluses are independent of the level of debt, the price level has to ‘jump’ to assure fiscal solvency. In this regime (which we call fiscal dominant), monetary policy has to work through seignorage to control the price level. If,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504577

Joining the Euro - the Macro Effects on the UK Economy

Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; Webb, Bruce - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002

Stochastic simulations are used on the Liverpool Model of the UK to assess the effect of macroeconomic stability of the UK adopting the Euro. Instability increases substantially, particularly for inflation and real interest rates. A key factor is the extent of the Euro's instability against the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504668

Time Variation in Term Premia: International Evidence

Jongen, Ron; Verschoor, Willem F C; Wolff, Christian C - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

This paper examines the validity of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates by means of a previously unexploited dataset of market expectations that covers a broad range of EMS versus non-EMS foreign currency deposits. Although we find strong evidence in favour of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504713

The EMS Crisis in Retrospect

Eichengreen, Barry - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

This Paper reconsiders the 1992/3 crisis in the European Monetary System in light of its emerging market successors. That episode was a predecessor of the Mexican and Asian crises in the sense that both capital movements and domestic financial fragility played important roles. The output effects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067395

Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms

Beetsma, Roel; Debrun, Xavier - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

This Paper analyses the decision of a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact. We provide suggestive evidence that structural reforms - in particular labour market reforms - may lead to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067483

Electonic Money and the Optimal Size of Monetary Unions

Costa Storti, Cláudia; De Grauwe, Paul - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002

In this Paper we analyse whether the emergence of electronic money is likely to affect the optimal size of monetary unions. We distinguish between two possible future scenarios. In one scenario, electronic money supplants the existing publicly supported monetary networks (including the national...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114247

Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem

Svensson, Lars E O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

The paper discusses the choice between inflation targeting and monetary targeting as a strategy for the Eurosystem, the actual strategy the Eurosystem announced in the fall of 1998, the framework for policy decisions appropriate for achieving the goals of the Eurosystem, the role of exchange...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114311

Understanding the High Interest Rates on Italian Government Securities

Giovannini, Alberto; Piga, Gustavo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992

This paper discusses several determinants of the differential between yields on Italian government securities and yields on foreign government securities. We concentrate on expectations of (at least partial) insolvency, tax factors and exchange rate expectations. The evidence suggests that most...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114342