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? Can stock return predictability be explained by changes in stock market volatility? How does the mean return per unit risk … predictor of both the mean and volatility of excess stock market returns. We characterize the risk-return tradeoff as the … negatively linked to variation in market volatility, at odds with leading asset pricing models. Since the conditional volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498159
This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model that captures the high expected returns on value stocks relative to growth stocks, and the failure of the capital asset pricing model to explain these expected returns. To model the difference between value and growth stocks, we introduce a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504287
Among the most important pieces of empirical evidence against the standard representative agent, consumption-based asset pricing paradigm are the formidable unconditional Euler equation errors the model produces for cross-sections of asset returns. Here we ask whether calibrated leading asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504372
We develop a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth make an important contribution to fluctuations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504785
This paper examines the extent to which individual investors provide liquidity to the stock market, and whether they are compensated for doing so.We show that the ability of aggregate retail order imbalances, contrarian in nature, to predict short-term future returns is significantly enhanced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096103
first regime characterized by low ex-post returns and high volatility, the risk-return relation is reversed, whereas the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083264
We show that the endogenous stochastic process of the liquidity ofsecurities is as important to investment and valuation as the exogenous stochastic process of their cash flows.We develop a general-equilibrium model with heterogeneous investors who have an every-day motive to trade and pay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083845
We derive new estimates of total wealth, the returns on total wealth, and the wealth effect on consumption. We estimate the prices of aggregate risk from bond yields and stock returns using a no-arbitrage model. Using these risk prices, we compute total wealth as the price of a claim to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083953
The representative agent model (RA) has dominated macroeconomics for the last thirty years. This model does a reasonably good job of explaining the co-movements of consumption, investment, GDP and employment during normal times. But it cannot easily explain movements in asset prices. Two facts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084625
Existing literature continues to be unable to offer a convincing explanation for the volatility of the stochastic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084682