much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and … evaluating the risks underlying these forecasts. We show how policy-relevant forecast scenarios can be constructed from recently … to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently … forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative …

alternatives and more economically plausible. We discuss implications of our analysis for the estimation of economic models of …

this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis … produces systematically better forecasts than a random walk for most of the countries, and at any forecast horizon, including …

to simple bivariate forecasting models which use past inflation and output growth. Forecast performance also appears to …

Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking …