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The Confidence Effects of Fiscal Consolidations

Beetsma, Roel; Cimadomo, Jacopo; Furtuna, Oana; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

accurate picture of how consolidations affect confidence, we construct a monthly dataset of consolidation announcements based … confidence falls around announcements of consolidation measures, an effect driven by revenue-based measures. Moreover, the …-based consolidation announcements that take place in slump periods. Overall, if confidence is a concern and consolidation is unavoidable …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083434

Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums

Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209825

130 years of fiscal vulnerabilities and currency crashes in advanced economies

Fratzscher, Marcel; Mehl, Arnaud; Vansteenkiste, Isabel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper investigates the empirical link between fiscal vulnerabilities and currency crashes in advanced economies over the last 130 years, building on a new dataset of real effective exchange rates and fiscal balances for 21 countries since 1880. We find evidence that crashes depend more on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009324258

The International Monetary System: Living with Asymmetry

Obstfeld, Maurice - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper analyzes current stresses in the two key areas that concerned the architects of the original Bretton Woods system: international liquidity and exchange rate management. Despite radical changes since World War II in the market context for liquidity and exchange rate concerns, they...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385766

Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?

Ferraro, Domenico; Rogoff, Kenneth; Rossi, Barbara - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, we find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009359490

International Financial Adjustment

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Rey, Hélène - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

The Paper proposes a unified framework to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements. We show that deteriorations in a country’s net exports or net foreign asset position have to be matched either by future net export growth (trade adjustment channel) or by future...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662073

EMU and the External Value of the Euro

Demertzis, Maria; Hughes Hallett, Andrew - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

The size and economic relevance of Europe may imply a new role for the EURO in the international financial markets. But will the EURO compete with the $US and the Yen for a place in the basket of international currencies? Will that induce a bipolar or indeed tri-polar system, and with what...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662141

Vehicle Currencies, Bank Debt and the Asset Market Approach to Exchange Rate Determination: The US Dollar, 1980-1985

Thomas, Stephen H; Wickens, Michael R. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1987

This paper examines the appreciation of the dollar over the period 1980-85. The standard theories try to explain the increased demand for dollar assets by differential rates of return on bonds or by "safe-haven" arguments associated with the lower riskiness of United States assets. Neither of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662155

The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency

Alogoskoufis, George; Portes, Richard; Rey, Hélène - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997

*The European Union will enter Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The development of euro financial markets and thickness externalities in the use of the euro as means of payment will be the major factors determining the importance of the euro as an international currency....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662175

Monetary Integration in Europe: Implications for Real Interest Rates, National Stock Markets and the Volatility of Prices and Exchange Rates

Canzoneri, Matthew B; Dellas, Harris - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995

Monetary arrangements in Europe vacillated wildly over the last decade, and they may be expected to continue to do so over the next. The literature on this chaotic process has focused on issues of credibility. Here, we focus instead on the longer-run implications of Europe's choice of monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662228

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