The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to … the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds … the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on …

role for the cyclicality of the unemployment outflow rate, although the contribution of the duration of unemployment is … significant. In contrast, composition effects dampen the cyclicality of the unemployment inflow rate considerably. We further … observe that the initially positive contribution of composition effects to a higher unemployment outflow rate turns negative …

role for the cyclicality of the unemployment outflow rate, although the contribution of the duration of unemployment is … significant. In contrast, composition effects dampen the cyclicality of the unemployment inflow rate considerably. We further … observe that the initially positive contribution of composition effects to a higher unemployment outflow rate turns negative …