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Using post-1995 Japanese data we propose a theory-based sign-restriction SVAR approach to identify monetary policy shocks when the economy is at the zero-lower bound. The identifying restrictions accord with predictions of corresponding DSGE models. Our results show that while a quantitative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274778
This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264579
There is a wide consensus that the existence of structural rigidities in the Eurozone reduces the effectiveness of the ECB's monetary policies. In order to test this ?ECB-handicap? hypothesis, we perform a meta-analysis of the effects of monetary policies in the US and the Eurozone countries....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276746
We introduce an approach for the empirical study of the quantity theory of money (QTM) that is novel both with respect … directly on the relationship between the rate of change of the money stock and inflation. We believe that this is an inferior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281041
standard macroeconomic shocks. Our main empirical finding is that the pass-through from changes in the money market rate to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288717
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011695675
quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand … relations are specified, estimated and tested. Then, employing error correction models, measures of excess money are derived … money is generally a better predictor than the quantity of money. Taking into account also the most (available) recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266089
This paper addresses the credit channel in Germany by using aggregate data. We present a stylized model of the banking firm in which banks decide on their loan supply in light of uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy. Applying a vector error correction model (VECM), we estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276159
Current best practice in central banking views a high level of monetary policy predictability as desirable. A clear distinction, however, has to be made between short-term and longer-term predictability. While short-term predictability can be narrowly defined as the ability of the public to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606235
The paper first reviews the main drivers of the growth and real convergence process in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe (CESEE) since 2000 and assesses the key macro-financial strengths and vulnerabilities of the region at the beginning of the global economic and financial crisis. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606266