We develop a novel approach integrating epidemiological and economic models that allows databased simulations during a pandemic. We examine the economically optimal opening strategy that can be reconciled with the containment of a pandemic. The empirical evidence is based on data from Germany...

European countries have the world's most redistributive tax and transfer systems. While they have been well equipped to deal with vertical inequality – that is, fostering redistribution from the rich to the poor – less is known about their performance in dealing with horizontal inequality,...

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act constitutes the largest change to the US tax system since the 1980s and thoroughly alters the way in which multinational companies are taxed. Current assessments on the reform's international impact vary widely. This article sheds light on the tax reform's expected...

This article introduces the ifo Business Uncertainty, a measure of how difficult it is for managers to predict the future business development of their firm. The indicator is based on a new monthly question in a representative survey of the German economy, the ifo Business Survey. It captures...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, increasing the importance of imports for total output. Since imports are a volatile component, they are difficult to forecast and strongly influence the forecast accuracy of gross domestic product. We introduce the first leading...

This paper examines the effects of real estate transfer taxes (RETT) on house prices using a rich micro dataset on German properties covering the period from 2005 to 2018. We exploit a 2006 constitutional reform that allowed states to set their own RETT rates, leading to frequent increases in...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral subcomponents at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lagmodel we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...