forecasting model for another variable, and hence our use of terminology such as ?out-of-sample Granger causality? (see e …

This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. …

aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed … theoretical setup and the forecasting results. …

to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing …

forecasting techniques, e.g. correlation forecasts based on historical values and on a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model … varied. We find that the applied volatility forecasting models have a strong influence on the expected net present value … distribution and on the probability of default. In contrast, correlation forecasting models play a minor role. Time resolution and …

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …