This paper investigates whether there are bubbles in stock prices. We do this using a previously studied structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model claiming to distinguish fundamental and non-fundamental shocks to real stock prices. TheSVAR model relies on an identification restriction in...

We explore how changes in capital-based macroprudential regulation in the euro area affect the exposure of national banking sectors to domestic government debt, thus strengthening or weakening the sovereign-bank nexus. To do so, we construct a measure of macroprudential policy based on the...

We exploit a unique monthly dataset of bank balance sheets to document the lending behaviour of euro area banks that were subject to the EBA's 2011/12 Capital Exercise. This exercise was announced in October 2011 and required large European banking groups to meet a higher Tier 1 capital ratio by...

We exploit the Eurosystem’s longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) of 2011-2012 to analyze the effects that a large provision of central bank liquidity to banks has on the credit supply to firms. We control for credit demand by examining firms that borrow from several banks, in addition to...

Long-run restrictions have been used extensively for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. Such restrictions are typically just-identifying but can be checked by utilizing changes in volatility. This paper reviews and contrasts the volatility models that have...

Long-run restrictions have been used extensively for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. Such restrictions are typically just-identifying but can be checked by utilizing changes in volatility. This paper reviews and contrasts the volatility models that have...

In structural vector autoregressive analysis identifying the shocks of interest via heteroskedasticity has become a standard tool. Unfortunately, the approaches currently used for modelling heteroskedasticity all have drawbacks. For instance, assuming known dates for variance changes is often...

In this paper, we estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive (Logit-MVAR) model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 1999-2015. MVARs allow us to differentiate between different states of the economy. In our model, the time-varying state weights are...

Tests for identification through heteroskedasticity in structural vector autoregressive analysis are developed for models with two volatility states where the time point of volatility change is known. The tests are Wald type tests for which only the unrestricted model including the covariance...

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...