This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...

In this paper, we use a modified concept of Granger-(non)causality in reconsidering the negative correlation between stock returns and inflation known in the literature as stock return-inflation puzzle. Based on the quarterly data for Germany including stock returns, inflation rates and growth...

This paper considers alternative approaches to the analysis of large panel data models in the presence of error cross section dependence. A popular method for modelling such dependence uses a factor error structure. Such models raise new problems for estimation and inference. This paper compares...

A test for serial independence is proposed which is related to the BDS test but focuses on tail event probabilities rather than probabilities near the center of the distribution. The motivation behind this approach is to obtain a test more suitable for detecting structure in the tails, such as...

In this paper we will be estimating risk-neutral densities (RND) for the largest euro area stock market (the index of which is the German DAX), reporting their statistical properties, and evaluating their forecasting performance. We have applied an innovative test procedure to a new, rich, and...

In this paper we use fractional integration techniques to examine the degree of integration of four US stock market indices, namely the Standard and Poor, Dow Jones, Nasdaq and NYSE, at a daily frequency from January 2005 till December 2009. We analyse the weekly structure of the series and...

We revisit Wintenberger (2013) on the continuous invertibility of the EGARCH(1,1) model. We note that the definition of continuous invertibility adopted in Wintenberger (2013) may not always be sufficient to deliver strong consistency of the QMLE. We also take the opportunity to provide other...

We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...

The increasing availability of financial market data at intraday frequencies has not only led to the development of improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper...