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Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap

Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; … - 2023

income in East Germany. The bias difference in labor market expectations explains part of the East-West German wage gap. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290246

Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes : Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap

Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; … - 2023

income in East Germany. The bias difference in labor market expectations explains part of the East-West German wage gap …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358858

Does Short-Time Work Save Jobs? A Business Cycle Analysis

Balleer, Almut; Gehrke, Britta; Lechthaler, Wolfgang; … - 2014

In the Great Recession most OECD countries used short-time work (publicly subsidized working time reductions) to counteract a steep increase in unemployment. We show that short-time work can actually save jobs. However, there is an important distinction to be made: While the rule-based component...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333423

Wage Bargaining and Labor Market Policy with Biased Expectations

Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; … - 2023

of biased expectations for wage bargaining, vacancy creation, worker flows and labor market policies. Importantly, we … relationship between workers' job separation expectations and wages. Instead, a wage setting process with less frequent wage … the difference between firms' and workers' biases matters for the bargained wage but not the size of biases. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290251

Wage Bargaining and Labor Market Policy with Biased Expectations

Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; … - 2023

of biased expectations for wage bargaining, vacancy creation, worker flows and labor market policies. Importantly, we … relationship between workers’ job separation expectations and wages. Instead, a wage setting process with less frequent wage … the difference between firms’ and workers’ biases matters for the bargained wage but not the size of biases …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358405

The Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory with Measured Expectations

Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023

We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290126

Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and a Representative Sample

Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; … - 2019

We propose a method to measure people’s subjective models of the macroeconomy. Using a sample of 2,200 households representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how the unemployment rate and the inflation rate respond to four different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141051

Monetary Policy, Price Setting, and Credit Constraints

Balleer, Almut; Zorn, Peter - 2019

We estimate the effects of monetary policy on price-setting behavior in administrative micro data underlying the German producer price index. We find a strong degree of monetary non-neutrality. After expansionary monetary policy, the mass of additional price adjustments is economically small and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012179777

Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Balleer, Almut; Link, Sebastian; Menkhoff, Manuel; … - 2020

We study price-setting behavior in German firm-level survey data to infer the relative importance of supply and demand during the Covid-19 pandemic. Supply and demand forces coexist, but demand shortages dominate in the short run. A reported negative impact of Covid-19 on current business is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269464

Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information

Roth, Christopher; Settele, Sonja; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2020

We conduct an experiment with a representative sample from the US to study households' demand for macroeconomic information. Respondents who learn of a higher personal exposure to unemployment risk during recessions increase their demand for an expert forecast about the likelihood of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012314921