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Lanne, Markku - 2013

1970:1.2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724820

A noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters : an application to US inflation

Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani - 2013

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724822

Forecasting random walks under drift instability

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2008

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276222

Inflation in the G7 Countries : Persistence and Structural Breaks

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020

This paper examines long-range dependence in the inflation rates of the G7 countries by estimating their (fractional) order of integration d over the sample period January 1973 - March 2020. The results indicate that the series are very persistent, the estimated value of d being equal to or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831651

Uncertainty of macroeconomic forecasters and the prediction of stock market bubbles

Herwartz, Helmut; Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič - 2014

We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty -- approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts -- to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010400661

Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of asset price adjustment : a global view

Belke, Ansgar; Orth, Walter; Setzer, Ralph - 2009

Global liquidity expansion has been very dynamic since 2001. Contrary to conventional wisdom, high money growth rates have not coincided with a concurrent rise in goods prices. At the same time, however, asset prices have increased sharply, significantly outpacing the subdued development in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003889489

Monetary policy, global liquidity and commodity price dynamics

Belke, Ansgar; Bordon, Ingo G.; Hendricks, Torben - 2010

This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical model supports the view that, when controlling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003934679

The credibility of monetary policy announcements : empirical evidence for OECD countries since the 1960s

Belke, Ansgar; Freytag, Andreas; Keil, Jonas; … - 2012

Monetary policy rules have been considered as fundamental protection against inflation. However, empirical evidence for a correlation between rules and inflation is relatively weak. In this paper, we first discuss likely causes for this weak link and present the argument that monetary commitment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579330

Money and Inflation in the euro area during the financial crisis

Dreger, Christian; Wolters, Jürgen - 2011

This paper explores the stability of the relation between money demand for M3 and inflation in the euro area by including the recent period of the financial crisis. Evidence is based on a cointegration analysis, where inflation and asset prices are allowed to enter the long run relationship. By...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009427840

Employment gowth, inflation and output growth: was Phillips right? : Evidence from a dynamic panel

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Škare, Marinko - 2011

In this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in Phillips' tradition. For this purpose we apply FMOLS, DOLS, PMGE, MGE, DFE, and VECM methods to a nonstationary heterogeneous dynamic panel including annual data for 119...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009487899