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The Pressure Is On: How Geopolitical Tensions Impact Institutional Fiscal and External Stability Responses

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2024

In this article, we study the effects of geopolitical risks and world uncertainty on time-varying fiscal and external sustainability coefficients. We use Schlicht's (2021) methodology to estimate time-varying fiscal and external sustainability coefficients for the EU for 27 economies between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014534404

Beyond the Centre: Tracing Decentralization's Influence on Time-varying Fiscal Sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar; … - 2024

. Results for 185 countries show that while tax decentralization often hampers the degree of fiscal responsiveness, potentially …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014574299

To Consolidate or Not to Consolidate? A Multi-Step Analysis to Assess Needed Fiscal Sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar - 2022

We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The "need" to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177652

Does Government Spending Efficiency Improve Fiscal Sustainability?

Afonso, António; Alves, José - 2022

We evaluate the impact of government spending efficiency on fiscal sustainability for a panel of 35 OECD countries during the period of 2007-2020. To answer our research question we first compute the magnitude of the responses of government revenues to changes in government spending. Next, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013266703

Are Fiscal Consolidation Episodes Helpful for Public Sector Efficiency?

Afonso, António; Alves, José - 2022

We assess the consequences of fiscal consolidation episodes on public sector efficiency (scores) for 35 OECD countries for the 2007-2020 period. We find that fiscal consolidations improve public sector efficiency and results are robust across efficiency models. Moreover, peripheral euro-area...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013353373

Optimal Threshold Taxation: An Empirical Investigation for Developing Economies

Menescal, Lucas; Alves, José - 2022

In this empirical study we assess both linear and nonlinear relationship between total taxation and several tax items … evaluate the effects of taxation on economic growth for both short and long run perspectives, and to find optimal tax threshold … values. We obtain evidence of nonlinear relationships between all tax items, except for corporate income taxation, as well as …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013353394

Determinants of the Degree of Fiscal Sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Coelho, José Carlos - 2023

We assess the link between fiscal sustainability coefficients, namely the responses of the primary government balance and the global government balance to the debt-to-GDP ratio, and the response of government revenues to government expenditures. For 22 OECD developed countries we use annual data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290135

The Effects of Monetary Policy Surprises and Fiscal Sustainability Regimes in the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena - 2023

We study the effect of monetary surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal sustainability regimes in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4. First, we estimate time-varying fiscal sustainability coefficients based on Bohn's (1998) approach through Schlicht's (2003)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014377532

Monetary Policy Surprise Shocks under Different Fiscal Regimes: A Panel Analysis of the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena - 2023

We study the effect of monetary policy surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal stances in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4 for a panel of the 19 countries of the Euro Area. Applying local projection methodology, we find that the effect of monetary shocks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014377601

Fiscal Sustainability and the Role of Inflation

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Matvejevs, Oļegs; … - 2023

We examine the relationship between inflation and fiscal sustainability with a two-step approach. In the first step, we estimate to estimate a country-specific time-varying measure of fiscal sustainability using the fiscal reaction function. This function captures the response of the primary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014469307