We analyze the impact of Eurozone/Germany and U.S. macroeconomic news announcements and the communication of the monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the forex markets of new EU members. We employ an event study methodology to analyze intra-day data from 2011–2015. Our...

Since the introduction of the euro in January 1999, exchange rate stability at the periphery of the euro area is growing. The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate stability on growth for a sample of 41 mostly small open economies at the EMU periphery. It identifies international trade,...

This paper reviews reassesses the methodology and principal findings of the “Rose effect”, i.e. the trade effects of currency union, looking at both EMU and non-EMU currency unions. The consensus estimate suggests that the euro has already boosted intra-euro area trade by five to ten...

This paper analyses the explanatory power of the frequency of abnormal returns in the FOREX for the EURUSD, GBRUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPCHF, AUDUSD and USDCAD exchange rates over the period 1994-2019. Abnormal returns are detected using a dynamic trigger approach; then the following hypotheses...

Using extreme value theory tools, we demonstrate that the distributions of the exchange market pressure (EMP) series for most of twelve emerging Europe countries have heavy tails, and disregarding their tail properties may lead to substantial underestimation of the probability of tail events....

This paper analyses the impact of the shift away from a US dollar focus of systemically important emerging market economies (EMEs) on configurations between the US dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed US dollar exchange rate regimes remain pervasive and...

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...

Through the euro area crisis, financial fragmentation across jurisdictions became a prime concern for the single monetary policy. The ECB broadened the scope of its instruments and enacted a series of non-standard measures to engineer an appropriate degree of policy accommodation. The...

We examine the implications of monetary union for macroeconomic stabilisation in catching up participating countries. We allow member states' supply conditions to differ inside the union, especially with regard to sectoral characteristics. Sectoral productivity shocks on balance hamper the...

This paper develops a tractable model of a monetary union with a sound fiscal governance structure and shows how in such environment the design of monetary policy above and at the lower bound constraint on short-term interest rates can be linked to well-known findings from the literature dealing...