This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit...

We analyse euro area investors' portfolio rebalancing during the ECB's Asset Purchase Pro- gramme at the security level. Based on net transactions of domestic and foreign securities, we observe euro area sectors' capital ows into individual securities, cleaned from valuation effects. Our...

I propose a dynamic general equilibrium model in which strategic interactions between banks and depositors may lead to endogenous bank fragility and slow recovery from crises. When banks' investment decisions are not contractible, depositors form expectations about bank risk-taking and demand a...

This paper focuses on the debt recovery channel linking the dynamics of public debt to partial sovereign defaults. We build a simple model which incorporates sovereign default and a debt recovery rule. It depends on a parameter that allows for partial debt recovery. We show that the maximum...