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Sovereign Defaults and Debt Sustainability : The Debt Recovery Channel
Diarra, Ibrahima; Guillard, Michel; Kempf, Hubert - 2022
This paper focuses on the debt recovery channel linking the dynamics of public debt to partial sovereign defaults. We build a simple model which incorporates sovereign default and a debt recovery rule. It depends on a parameter that allows for partial debt recovery. We show that the maximum...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292498
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The Eurozone needs exit rules
Fahrholz, Christian; Wójcik, Cezary - 2012
This paper argues that the key issue for defining and solving the Eurozone's (EZ) difficulties lies in readjusting the … essence of today's crisis we analyze to what extent a troubled periphery EZ member can negotiate a bailout from the center due …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283606
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The bail-out! Positive political economics of greek-type crises in the EMU
Fahrholz, Christian; Wójcik, Cezary - 2010
The Greek bail-out was highly controversial. An oft-heard assessment is that i) the bail-out was a mistake, ii) the … political haggling over it was irrational and iii) the bail-out will create a moral hazard problem. Contrary to this view, our … analysis suggests that, given EMU's present political-economic set-up, i) the bail-out was unavoidable, ii) the lengthy process …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274897
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The Greek crisis: Causes and consequences
Garcia Pascual, Antonio I.; Ghezzi, Piero - 2011
Greece has reached a point where, under any plausible macroeconomic scenario, public debt will continue growing faster than GDP. Fiscal consolidation alone cannot close the solvency gap. A substantial reduction in the stock of debt is needed. Even post-debt restructuring, there is no guarantee...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280648
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An Unemployment Re-Insurance Scheme for the Eurozone? Stabilizing and Redistributive Effects
Dolls, Mathias - 2020
This paper develops a decomposition framework to study the importance of different stabilization channels of an unemployment re-insurance scheme for the euro area. Running counterfactual simulations based on household micro data for the period 2000–16, the paper finds that the re-insurance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836930
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Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus
Hristov, Nikolay - 2020
We explore the effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policy on the banks' sovereign debt portfolios. In particular, using panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models we analyze whether banks increased their domestic government bond holdings in response to non-standard monetary policy shocks,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838235
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The Euro Area Periphery Sovereigns' Fiscal Positions and Unconventional Monetary Policy
Hülsewig, Oliver - 2020
We explore the reaction of the euro area periphery sovereigns' fiscal positions to an unconventional monetary policy shock. We estimate panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models over the period 2010-2018, and identify the shock by imposing sign restrictions. Our results suggest that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843420
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The Euro Exchange Rate and Germany's Trade Surplus
Hohberger, Stefan - 2019
We estimate a three-region (DE-REA-RoW) structural macroeconomic model, and we provide a counterfactual on how nominal exchange rate flexibility would have affected the German trade balance (TB) by simulating the shocks of the estimated model under a counterfactual flexible exchange rate regime....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890627
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Private Bank Deposits and Macro/Fiscal Risk in the Euro-Area
Arghyrou, Michael - 2019
We examine the relationship between private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro area. We test three hypotheses: First, private bank deposits relative to Germany are determined by macro/fiscal risk factors. Second, this relationship is time-varying. Third, time-variation is driven by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891054
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57 Channels (and Nothin on) - Does TV-News on the Eurozone Affect Government Bond Yield Spreads?
Wolfinger, Julia - 2019
news shows of leading TV stations in 12 countries which include 37,859 news on the EU, on the Eurozone and on country …-specific economic issues. We find that an increasing share of news about the Eurozone reduces yield spreads, especially when the news …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892159