policy rate will become constrained in the future lowers today's inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus … the tail risk induced by the ELB causes inflation to undershoot the target rate of 2 percent by as much as 50 basis points …

labor share of income. I show that this channel is generally absent in standard macroeconomic models that do not take risk …

for the future (global savings glut). Low growth is linked to slowing population growth and a declining marginal …, from the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory, interest rates were step by step decreased by central banks to … nihilo and the need of time to produce capital invalidates the IS identity assumed in the Keynesian theory to hold …

, or "uncertainty shocks", are an important model ingredient. First, they account for countercyclical movements in risk … changes in both risk-premia and expected future real rates, uncertainty shocks account for about 1/2 of the variance of long …