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What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual time series data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766848
A central issue of monetary policy analysis is the specification of monetary policy shocks. In a structural vector autoregressive setting there has been some controversy about which restrictions to use for identifying the shocks because standard theories do not provide enough information to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263934
This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine the quantitative macroeconomic implications of countercyclical fiscal policy for France, Germany and the UK. The model incorporates real wage rigidity which is the particular market failure justifying policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264070
This paper presents empirical evidence against the popular perception that macro volatility is exogenous. We obtain tax effects on macro aggregates in the stochastic neoclassical model. Taxes are shown to affect the second moment of output growth rates without affecting the first moment....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267049
Globalization may impose a double-burden on low-skilled workers. On the one hand, the relative supply of low-skilled labor increases. This suppresses wages of low-skilled workers and/or increases their unemployment rates. On the other hand, low-skilled workers typically face more limited access...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271862
This paper considers a multivariate t version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), and suggests the use of devolatized returns computed as returns standardized by realized volatilities rather than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276212
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276222
Because of the uncertainty about how to model the growth process of our economy, there is still much confusion about which discount rates should be used to evaluate actions having long-lasting impacts, as in the contexts of climate change, social security reforms or large public infrastructures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291529
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