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Cyclical Income Risk in Great Britain
Angelopoulos, Konstantinos - 2019
This paper establishes new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household income risk in Great Britain and assesses the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this risk. We address these issues using the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008) by decomposing stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872060
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Macroeconomic Shocks and Racial Labour Market Differences in the U.S
De, Kuhelika - 2020
Using 136 United States macroeconomic indicators from 1973 to 2017, and a factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) framework with sign restrictions, we investigate the effects of three structural macroeconomic shocks - monetary, demand, and supply - on the labour market outcomes of black...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844419
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Wage Risk and the Skill Premium
Slavík, Ctirad - 2020
, individual wage risk has also increased. This paper proposes a mechanism through which a rise in wage risk increases the skill … premium. Intuitively, a rise in uninsured wage risk increases precautionary savings, thereby boosting capital accumulation … that the rise in wage risk observed between 1967 and 2010 increases the skill premium significantly. This finding is robust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824576
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Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in Real-Time : A Novel Method Applied to the COVID-19 Crisis in Germany
Bruckmeier, Kerstin; Peichl, Andreas; Popp, Martin; … - 2021
The highly dynamic nature of the COVID-19 crisis poses an unprecedented challenge to policy makers around the world to take appropriate income-stabilizing countermeasures. To properly design such policy measures, it is important to quantify their effects in real-time. However, data on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250264
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Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle Through the Midas Lens
Castelnuovo, Efrem; Mori, Lorenzo - 2022
We employ a mixed-frequency quantile regression approach to model the time-varying conditional distribution of the US real GDP growth rate. We show that monthly information on the US financial cycle improves the predictive power of an otherwise quarterly-only model. We combine selected quantiles...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242149
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Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles
Bayer, Christian - 2020
How much does inequality matter for the business cycle and vice versa? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice between liquid and illiquid assets. The model enlarges the set of shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841741
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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times : A Replication of the VAR Investigation by Bloom (2009)
Caggiano, Giovanni - 2020
This paper revisits the well-known VAR evidence on the real effects of uncertainty shocks by Bloom (Econometrica 2009(3): 623-685. doi: 10.3982/ECTA6248). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using Eviews. In a wide sense, we extend his study by working with a smooth transition-VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824829
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Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús - 2020
We postulate a nonlinear DSGE model with a financial sector and heterogeneous households. In our model, the interaction between the supply of bonds by the financial sector and the precautionary demand for bonds by households produces significant endogenous aggregate risk. This risk induces an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825400
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Economic Uncertainty and Fertility
Gozgor, Giray; Bilgin, Mehmet; Rangazas, Peter - 2021
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231969
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Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations
Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2021
We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers’ bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements. To quantify the aggregate importance of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235101