We estimate the impact of Covid-induced working from home (WFH) on offline consumer spending in urban agglomerations. Our analysis draws on postcode-level data on card transactions and WFH patterns in major German cities between January 2019 and May 2022. We address endogeneity in WFH uptake by...

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period...

This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration methods to analyse the determinants of the amount of loans provided to non-financial corporations (NFCs) during the last three decades in four Eurozone countries, namely Germany, France, Italy and Spain. More specifically, ARFIMA...

We study the effect of monetary surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal sustainability regimes in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4. First, we estimate time-varying fiscal sustainability coefficients based on Bohn’s (1998) approach through Schlicht’s (2003)...

We explore the effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policy on the banks' sovereign debt portfolios. In particular, using panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models we analyze whether banks increased their domestic government bond holdings in response to non-standard monetary policy shocks,...

This paper studies the social and economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in a large sample of countries. I stress, in particular, the importance of countries' interconnections to un-derstand the spread of the virus. I estimate a Global VAR model and exploit a dataset on existing social...

The European Central Bank (ECB) took many measures to combat the eurozone’s rolling financial crisis. For providing desperately scarce dollars to eurozone banks, the ECB relied on the U.S. Federal Reserve. Using a novel econometric framework, we identify financial markets’ response to the...

We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...

This paper uses fractional integration methods to assess the impact of US policy responses (containment and health measures, income support policy, debt-relief policy, changes in the Effective Federal Funds Rate, monetary and fiscal announcements) to the COVID-19 pandemic on US sectoral stock...