This paper studies the effects of bilateral foreign aid on conflict escalation and de-escalation. We make three major …-sided and multifaceted nature of conflict. Second, we develop a novel empirical framework. We propose a dynamic ordered probit … aid on conflict by predicting bilateral aid flows based on electoral outcomes of donor countries that are exogenous to …

open civil conflict against the government. Our model implies that terrorism emerges if constraints on the ruling executive … group are intermediate and rents are sizeable, whereas conflict looms under poor executive constraints. Analyzing annual … when considering the incidence and onset of terrorism and conflict. The corresponding magnitudes are economically sizeable …

from the Rose [2004] dataset, the ITERATE dataset for terrorist events, and datasets of external and internal conflict. We … of terrorism, as well as internal and external conflict is equivalent to as much as a 30 percent tariff on trade. This is …